Replies to post #102816 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[punkle]

Zeev, I'm sorry but I don't understand your "score" reference? Could you expand a bit on what you mean here?

Thanks.

[mjk]

Right, 1253 was the last low. What I meant was, since you had thought a major battle would occur at 1330 on the next downleg, and 1390 had a slim chance of holding, if the recent action has increased the probability that 1330 would end up holding "for good" (for the coming bull) and your lower targets would not be reached, thus making 1330 the final "bottom" before the bull begins.

I got it though, let's see what the next retrenchment brings...looking forward to your comments.

Thanks.

[ajtj99]

Well, last triple top taken out today (Dow), unless you count the BKX, which should probably be exempt from the triple top rule because they're all crooks <G>

Today's candles on the NDX and COMP are topping candles, but not slay the bull topping candles. They're more like interim topping candles, maybe good for some down into May 9 (or possibly only April 30 <G>).

[Bearmove]

Strictly a hedge fund trading rally. Bet they're setting up those shorts at this level.

Art C. was talking about this on CNBC. He sounded very convinced that the hedge fund boys were manipulating the recent market rally.

[Rick Storm]

Zeev, I have learned so much from your methodology that I feel uncomfortable asking this question. I know that the turnips are your personal indicators and that is not my business. But when you say we are "perched", I do not see it.

I have not seen what I understand as Turnip internals deteriorating. Volume has not gotten much worse in general and is even better on some days . New Highs are doing well. Even though there has been some fall off since last week. And as yesterday, you could be fooled, if one just looked at new highs. The market was basically at 1470 area, and I do not think the spike to 1482 lasted long enough to pull the slow movers near highs to a higher level. So, to me new highs are ok.

I have not seen much distribution re tic/ trin except for a few times.

Fa stinks, no doubt about it ; but you told me to believe the TA. Granted some great overbought conditions are here. Other indicators as bonds, trader sentiment, mutual fund flows are "bearish", But ,I just do not seen the perch area. It looks more like a trading range and the Vix dummies are the smart ones; not the bulls or the bears.

If you are able to answer any part of this, it would be helpful to me. I am not experienced or smart enough to see 1/100 or less of what you see. Thank you, Rick

[mish]

max pain.

Spoos 875
DOW 8300
QQQ 27

This would imply far more to drop on the Spoos than the others.
Financials are hugely above pain here.
On the Naz INTC is above pain at 17.5 but CSCO right on top of a "soft" 15. I say soft because the huge call to put dicrepancy even thoug pain is 15.

MSFT has room to fall to 25.

IF we start dropping substantially (the sox and even more likely the financials will lead the way) GE JPM C well above pain levels.

It is interesting to note that MSFT is above pain headed into expiry rather than below it, for perhaps the first time since January. Perhaps that is significant, perhaps not.

(Your "safe short" INTC looks good from a pain standpoint)

M