Replies to post #126942 on Intel Corp (INTC)

[walbert]

Smartphones are just one piece of the puzzle. And we are heading into the next level of computing where smartphones are going to be a smaller piece of the puzzle.

Tired: Smartphones

Maturing market, decreasing margins, and only incremental improvements. We aren't going to see any gotcha applications.

Wired: The Internet of Things, Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality, 3D Images and Printing, Speech and Gestures as Input, and the Beginning of the Age of True Artificial Intelligence

The evolution to the next level of computing is upon us and this is where the real growth is - not in smartphones. Not that smartphones won't be a part of it but that is all they will be is a part of it.

As we saw on Monday, Intel is well-positioned for a leadership position in the next level of computing with technologies across the gamut that will manifest important new revenue streams.

We will rapidly move now from individual devices into a sea of processors and connectivity.

[wbmw]

I am - like Chipguy - convinced that the tablet market eventually goes straight to Intel.

I am not. I see there being 5 primary ecosystems for tablets:

1. Apple (Intel has no chance)
2. Samsung (the latest Galaxy Tab design won by Intel is now back using Exynos - so what does that tell you?)
3. Amazon (Qualcomm has this ecosystem locked up for quite some time, IMO)
4. Nexus (If Intel has a design here, I'll believe it when I see it)
5. China (chips here sold at near-0% margin)

The remaining tablet ecosystem is either high end designs (i.e. Surface Pro 2), which is merely a sale of a tablet at the expense of a laptop - or the 5-10% of remaining smaller OEMs struggling to survive on table scraps.

I believe Intel's prospects without a Nexus design is probably a maximum of 10% of the market, and with a Nexus design, maybe 20% of the market. Intel has no chance of being a dominate player in the market without dominating at least 4 out of 5 of the above ecosystems, IMO. And I don't see that happening in the foreseeable future.

Rather, I see a series of enormous losses from Intel's mobile business group, as reality sets, and their spending relative to their prospects in the market start playing out.