Excuse me if this sounds like bragging, Jay, but according to the figures below I hold six of the 'top 10 winners' and one of the 'top 10 losers for January.
I'd like to find a detail page on silver as I figure WTZ and SSRI had to score fairly high as well.
Industries Detail:
Updated nightly February 2
10 Best Performing Gold Stocks Symbol Company % Change One Month
G'morning Jay, Fwiw, I think these are a couple of Sinclair's better efforts...
Silver and Gold ETFs
Author: Jim Sinclair Thursday, February 02, 2006, 2:39:00 PM EST
From my silver comet friend via Tyler Colman (my son in law): "From all indications (I just poured over the prospectus) – it will be physical silver. Indeed, it seems that they will not even be able to issue shares after receiving the money unless the physical silver is coming into warehouse possession. This would answer the question of why the Silver Users Association is up in arms about this. They are the ones who use the physical silver and don’t want to have an instant elephant competing for available silver."
Should this silver ETF come into reality then others will follow suit. Some will be trading the futures, some will be investing in futures and rolling forward, while some will replicate this fund, taking up silver actuals and putting them into storage. That mix, should it occur, is a reincarnation of the Hunt Brothers as it will exist during a crisis period in energy prices. You can be sure that COT in the form of the Silver Users Association will fight like hell to block Silver ETFs but it will happen. The market will be your best advisor and $10.50 plus 3% is the key target and go sign.
Monty Guild, who I feel is the "Top Gun" among money managers, sent me this EXTREMELY important data that must be reviewed. This information is a “BLOCKBUSTER” because interest in gold is only starting and is modest compared to what is coming in the next three years.
"Investment in Gold Bullion ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) are becoming a significant catalyst on the price of gold as the aggregate quantity of physical owned by the ETF's is now clearly competing with global Central Banks. A year ago the ETF's owned an aggregate of 170 tonnes which would have ranked them as the 25th largest official holder at that time. As of the end of last week the ETF's held 414 tonnes of bullion which ranks them as the world's 13th largest official holder and puts them within striking distance of Mainland China, currently ranked 10th with a reported 600 tonnes. ETF's now trade in the US, Australia, South Africa, London, and France. SEBI in India has announced enabling rules that will allow gold ETF's and there is also a rumor of a Hong Kong listing. Bottom line: These significant increases are taking gold out of the system and will clearly counter further official sector sales."
Jim Sinclair's Commentary:
Gold today closed at $572.80, increasing the probability that it will march to and through $600 in the face of the gold trash talkers.
The newest gimmick being used by these trash talkers is to spam people with their "sell gold" and gold share advice using rented email addresses. The rationale is this: If they are wrong, which they are, it costs only the rental of the email list. If they are right, which they are not, then they stand to get some of the anti-gold people to subscribe to their missives.
At some point, there will be a reaction in gold but that will happen when the market decides and it will not be precipitated by the gold trash talkers. Remember, these guys are amoral business people and are not interested in you, gold, the gold community or anything except your hard earned MONEY. However, they call you by your first name, pretend to be pro gold and then pull the rug from under your fee, putting doubt in your mind - and you pay for the service. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Silver Exchange Traded Funds: Are the Hunts Reincarnated or is COT Strengthened?
Author: Jim Sinclair Thursday, February 02, 2006, 11:50:00 AM EST
The answer is simple and there is also a price in the marketplace which will resolve this question. First the price. It is a close three consecutive times at or above $10.50 plus 3%. Should this occur then the strategy is simple. Buy all reactions, selling 1/3 on all rallies TA guided, a great bull market strategy to stay in and go the course without too much heartache.
As far as COT being strengthened or the Hunts reincarnated, the answer is equally as simple and lies in the following considerations:
1. Will the ETF trade in paper silver? 2. Will the ETF invest in the paper silver, rolling from delivery maturity to delivery maturity? 3. Will the ETF purchase physical silver for trading? 4. Will the ETF purchase physical silver for investment?
The Hunts were long paper silver but delivery was methodically taken by certain of their family members who individually preferred physical silver. This resulted in silver moving from $4 to $54 slowly. But it constantly came out of COMEX warehouses until the rumor became rampant that the Hunt Brothers would demand delivery on some if not all of their paper silver futures.
Personally, I do not believe they ever intended to do that and break the playing board of the COMEX exchange. Regardless, rumors are most of the time more powerful than the truth. These rumors always look for collusion, conspiracy and dastardly acts. You can see how the misinterpretation of the situation came to be. Added to this, there may have been some statements made by the Hunt brothers in anger to the exchange when the exchange pushed for answers they probably had no right to ask
I know about this because I was close to the situation before and after the major silver rise and fall. The Chairman of the Federal Reserve at the time, Paul Volcker required that I accept the position as advisor to the Hunt Brothers in liquidation before the consortium loan was made to the Hunt Brokers in order to pay down their debits. This prevented many major Wall Street firms from collapsing and the attendant results of that. They accepted this criteria and I assumed that position.
My trading in silver prior to that was reviewed by the Chicago Exchange at a meeting of its Board of Directors. It looked like half the exchange members were in the room. I had offered 6000 silver contracts for sale at market when a major buyer entered the ring, making noises like he wanted to buy all the silver there was around. It was quite late in the trading session as that was the habit of this particular buyer.
I wanted to test the real resolve of this entity. Silver was up 15 cents when I entered as an enthusiastic seller. From plus 15 cents silver ran limit down as the buyer left the ring. The silver pit traders got so excited that when the exchange bell rang they would not abandon the ring but keep on trading with floor monitors for the exchange going wild trying to stop the action. It took the exchange officials 5 minutes to stop the trading and the market ended up limit down.
Needless to say the Board of Directors wanted to speak to me. I will always remember that Board meeting. The Board was not too happy with me because they all must have been long and looking for serious hurt. About 20 minutes into this grilling a member came in and motioned to speak to the Chairman. The Chairman turned white as if all the blood had drained out of him. He stood up and yelled that the entire cabinet of President Carter has tendered their resignation. With that there was literally a stampede out of the board room of the exchange, leaving only two people sitting there, me and my attorney. I turned to Phil and said, what now? He said we go back to New York and that ended that.
I tell you about these experiences to suggest to you that I have proper credentials to speak about silver and the ETFs now taking birth.
Here is the skinny:
If the ETFs in silver buy and invest, rolling over their positions from delivery month to delivery month while slowing taking delivery or buying physical in the open market, the hunt Brothers are reincarnated in the midst of an energy price crisis which totally duplicates the Hunt experience and means silver at $50 once again.
If the ETFs in silver simply trade in virtual silver they are allies of COT.
The market will answer this important question at $10.50 plus 3%.
You say why wait to take a significant long position? My answer is that $40 is plenty of a play for anyone.
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