Replies to post #171893 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

TEVA seems too big in its own country to become second fiddle to someone elsewhere.

I concur and posted about this in #msg-94495284. Nevertheless, I included Teva in the 2014 buyout survey because Bloomberg and other newswires have penned pieces that quoted analysts who said Teva is a likely buyout candidate in light of the recent palace coup.

[DewDiligence]

...VRTX won't merge because Joshua Berger is happy to be a main feature there.

Boger is only one vote on the BoD, and he isn’t directly involved in day-to-day operations anymore.

VRTX was my own vote in the survey of companies with >=$1B market cap; it was a close call between VRTX and AGN. As jq1234 noted, when suitors pay a large sum for a biotech acquisition, they invariably want proven products they can sell immediately or in the near future, and they typically justify the buyout premium by citing the cost synergies in SG&A.

[DewDiligence]

I suspect that BIIB has been solo for so long that it wouldn't want and doesn't need to merge.

Agreed that BIIB is doing fine and is unlikely to initiate M&A discussions; however, they might get an offer that’s too good to refuse. With Tecfidera as the flagship, BIIB has the kind of product portfolio that could attract a large suitor.