Replies to post #171866 on Biotech Values

[biotech_researcher]

I believe Rachel McMinn has again lost course. She was way late in coverage of Ariad a few years ago. Then, last September I believe, she raises Ariad from $25 to $30, including a value of $3 to $4 for AP26113. Recently, she has increased her price target from $2 to $3, giving Zero value for '113. She is absolutely clueless, imo, and is condescending on the CC with Ariad.

[gpo344]

Rachel added this on December 24

Iclusig price increase as expected
ARIA increased the price on Dec 23 for its leukemia drug Iclusig by 8% to $10,350
for a one month supply. The increase is just ahead of our estimated 6.5% increase,
and consistent with recent company comments that it plans to maintain a modest
price premium for Iclusig over other leukemia medicines (Gleevec, Sprycel,
Tasigna, Bosulif).
Valuation stretched, consensus too high
We maintain our Underperform rating as we believe current valuation bakes in
euphoria from the recent announcement that Iclusig would return to the US market.
We currently model $73M and $119M in 2014-2015 sales vs consensus of $87M
and $150M respectively. In addition, we think the bullish discussion in Street
upgrades around Iclusig having option value as a frontline therapy is very much
misplaced, as the safety profile, FDA label, and REMS program do not support first
line Iclusig use outside of a very rare niche T315I population.