I just can not see the economy recovering without jobs.
We keep losing tech jobs to India, call center jobs to India, and manufactoring jobs to China. How long before accounting jobs get outsourced overseas? How long before cars are totally made in China?
The last bastion of job strength here is housing and medical related. Medical jobs are going to stay for logistical reasons alone. If there is a housing bust (many would say WHEN NOT IF) then that is a totally HUGE number of trade jobs down the toilet.
So that is why I keep asking the same question (not trying to be a pest and if I had the answer I would surely offer it) .
I do not see an economy that does any more at best than barely "muddle thru" as Mauldin puts it. I wrote Mauldin and said the same thing. In order to "muddle Thru" we need to see an expansion of jobs. If we do not see that, we will do far worse than "muddle thru". Mauldin had no answers for me either.
Perhaps the answer is something we do not see yet, but it would seem that as long as it could be made elsewhere it will be. If it is a source of jobs here for an item made elsewhere, my mind simply is not creative to come up with it (or I would have a patent on it now, or at least invest 100% of what I had in it).
So everytime someone says to me there will be a "recovery" my standard question that is never answered to date, is
"Where will the jobs come from?".
Unless and until I see or at least sense an answer to this, I sincerely doubt there will be a significant recovery regardless of how many $ Greenspan throws at the damn thing. We could easily "pull a Japan" here if we are not careful. If people are out of work, easy credit is worthless unless the banks want to make like Japanese Banks and keep making more and more and more loans that will never be paid back.
All of which brings me back to square one.
In order for the economy to recover, we need jobs.
"Where will the jobs come from?".
Another question is "will there be a housing bust and when". The answer to that question could seriously worsen the problem.
If there is any uptick in computer jobs I feel it will be temporary at best (6-12 months of work before even bigger layoffs).
If you disagree with my assumption:
"In order for the economy to recover, we need jobs", then please explain how. If you agree with the statement then there are only three choices: 1) accept that jobs will somehow be there in abundant enough suppy so that people can afford all the houses they are buying, increasing property taxes, increasing medical costs, and increasing insurance costs, etc, 2) figure the economy is headed down the toilet for some time 3) figure that somehow we manage to muddle thru without jobs
2,3,1 seem most likely to me in that order.
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