Replies to post #171604 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA—Thanks, floblu. I’ll update the relevant posts in the MNTA ReadMeFirst to account for the termination of the third FoB compound (M511).

We don’t know whether BAX’s dropping M511 was a technical decision with respect to the specific compound or a business decision regarding the commercial prospects. If the former, a new compound will likely be selected as a replacement for M511; if the latter, another compound probably won’t be selected.

[DewDiligence]

Clarification to #msg-95173688:

I’ll update the relevant posts in the MNTA ReadMeFirst to account for the termination of the third FoB compound (M511).

The above should have said Baxter’s termination of M511 within the BAX-MNTA collaboration rather than termination of M511 per se. MNTA’s 8-K filing today says that MNTA will continue development of M511 without Baxter.

I previously speculated that M511 is an FoB for Erbitux.

[DewDiligence]

Biobucks Cheat Sheet for BAX-MNTA FoB Collaboration (revised)

[Updated to show amounts attributable to M511, which was discontinued
on 12/20/13 (#msg-95157732). If M511 is not replaced, the amounts
attributable to it will never be paid.]

 
                             Likelihood  
                     Amount  being paid  
    
 Up-front             $33M   Certain. 
    
 Pre-submission  
 technical/devlpmnt  
 milestones           $91M   Undisclosed portion for M923 & M834 
                             likely; $14M pertained to M511. 
                               
    
 BAX option exercise  
 on FoB’s #3-#6       $28M*  Depends on collaboration progress 
                             with first two compounds. 
 Regulatory-  
 approval  
 milestones          $300M   Many moving parts—full amount 
                             unlikely; $50M pertained to M511.  
    
 =================   =====  
 Total biobucks      $452M‡

*Excluding $20M ($5M x4) for extending the expiration of BAX’s options on compounds #3–#6.

‡$64M of total pertained to M511.