Replies to post #171521 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

…marginalize all other HCV players currently still in ph2 or earlier for GT1…which is positive for both GILD and ABBV/ENTA.

Indeed; that’s the underlying thesis in my ENTA valuation model that posits a 38% volume share for ABBV/ENTA in GT1. However, I do ascribe a modest amount of value to ABBV/ENTA’s second-generation regimen (ABT-493 + ABT-450) and to ENTA’s EDP-239 partnership with NVS.

[mcbio]

The result will stop others like JNJ from doing ph3 combo trial with Sofosbuvir for approval purpose as well - unlikely to begin with.

Why? Sovaldi+Olysio combo doesn't need ribavirin either.

It might also marginalize all other HCV players currently still in ph2 or earlier for GT1 somewhat as well which is positive for both GILD and ABBV/ENTA.

Still completely disagree here. Room for others to come later with similarly effective combos and similarly convenient (or better) and further compete on price. And those players that will be participating here that don't already have much baked into their valuation, likely won't need massive sales for their shares to feel an impact.

[DewDiligence]

The most superfluous HCV drug at any company may be BMY’s IFN-Lambda, which doesn’t even have a way to compete on price anymore.