Good point. I would expect a pre-drill run up at some point... but then I expected it to start months ago. Never happened, so I don't know what to expect from HDY at this point.
You guys are looking too much into it. Having consulted to hedge funds and mutual funds for 7 years you learn the high frequency trading machines make up most of the volume in low volume stocks. That's why you see large swings when there is an order of significance because its actually a buyer putting in a limit order.
And I doubt anyone is tax selling. A sophisticated investor would know they would have to wait 30 days to buy back in or the loss won't be recognized (tax "wash sale" rules).
The MMs and HFTs will keep this above $3 so they can keep writing worthless options. I expect the move to happen when Tullow announces that West Leo is en route to the drill site. Then the fun really begins.
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