Replies to post #171132 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

That wasn’t clear to me when I posted the ENTA valuation model in September. It is now, which is why I’m planning to revise it.

Fair enough.

I encourage you and anyone else to post what you think the US/EU blended pricing number in the model ought to be. Please bear in mind that I’m looking for the real-world price (net of discounts and rebates), not the list price.

For me personally, I want to see the real-world prices for Olysio and Sovaldi in combo with peg/riba before I wager a good guess on pricing of ABBV/ENTA 3-DAA combo.

[oc631]

I encourage you and anyone else to post what you think the US/EU blended pricing number in the model ought to be

ABBV will be able to dictate their share of the GT1 market in 2015 based on pricing. Capacity constraints, as opposed to competition, will dictate how aggressively they will price upon launch. GILD will hold the line on premium GT1 pricing (before discount) since they are "anchored" into a premium pricing arrangement for the more basic Sofo/Riba combo in GT2/GT3. GILD will not alter the monopoly-based, premium pricing in GT2/GT3 to be more price competitive in GT1. Yes there will be a lot of discounting of Sofo/Ledi but my point is this isn't your typical duopoly structure. BMY's entrance into the GT1 market will completely change this dynamic. The best thing that could happen to ABBV/ENTA shareholders is a delayed third entrant into the GT1 treatment market.