Replies to post #170158 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re; Market share in GT1 HCV

I assume your estimation "that ABBV’s 3-DAA regimen will garner about 100K of the available 260K patients per year in the US and EU, a market share of 38%" refers to a scenario in which both regimens from GILD and ABBV require 12 weeks treatment duration and both contain ribavirin…

My 38% forecast is based on the regimens GILD and ABBV/ENTA are actually testing in phase-3 trials. Thus, I’m assuming 12 weeks of treatment except for cirrhotic and HIV co-infected patients, who may require 24 weeks. I’m not assuming that either regimen will necessarily require ribavirin, because this has yet to be determined.