ajtj, I have been observing these series, sometimes they are "coincident" sometimes even a little late and some times a little early, when early, the additional thrust is rarely more than about 1 to 1.5 %. Many tops on the Naz 100 were smack on with the top in the percentage above 10 DMA (from memory, 5/22/01, 5/14/02 ans 8/22/02. The strange thing is that the sox is still below 90%, and while it has topped in the past near current levels, many times it needed to go above 90% (last May 14th, just before the major decline, it topped at 88% but the run into August 22nd was only to 82%.) Such extreme optimism simply prevent me from increasing exposure by much here.
Zeev
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