Replies to post #170091 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

For the purposes of this survey (to keep it simple) please assume that GILD and ABBV/ENTA between them have 100% of the market for all-oral treatment of GT1 patients; thus, the survey is asking for a fraction where GILD’s all-oral GT1 sales are in the numerator and the sum of GILD’s and ABBV/ENTA’s all-oral GT1 sales are in the denominator.

That's quite an assumption. ; )

[ronpopeil]

Enanta Pharmaceuticals Announces 96 Percent SVR12 IN SAPPHIRE-I STUDY

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/abbvie-releases-first-six-phase-130000784.html

[DewDiligence]

Survey results: Market Share in All-Oral Genotype-1 HCV

Q: What is your expectation for GILD’s worldwide market share of
all-oral HCV treatment for GT1 patients during the 2015-2016 period?

a) 90% or more: 5%
b) 70-89%: 21%
c) 50-69%: 47%
d) 30-49%: 21%
e) Less than 30%: 5%


The symmetry makes the voting seem contrived, but that’s how the tally of 19 voters came out when I excluded the one voter who answered, “No Answer.” My own vote was c), which is consistent with the ENTA valuation model in #msg-92234861.

Thanks to all of the participants for participating.