Replies to post #100208 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Ace Hanlon]

Looking back now I think the key factor signalling a strong rally was the sharp narrowing in corporate credit spreads and the resultant surge in junk bonds. Having profited greatly in junk bonds this year, I was too slow in realizing the full significance of that rally for the stock market.

[TREND1]

Zeev
(1)On April 1, 2003 Nasdaq 100 had 10% stocks above 10DMA
(2)On April 22, 2003 Nasdaq 100 had 94% stocks above 10DMA
(3)It will be interesting to look back at April 22, 2003
in about a week.

[mish]

Zeev CBOE only shows CBOE intraday data.
This sometimes can really skew P/C ratio

The EOD OI counts are quite accurate for all exchanges but volumes and intra-day counts are strictly CBOE

M

[gtober]

Zeev, by my count, the QQQ June Strike $24 puts traded about 100,000 volume today. The QQQ June Strike $26 traded about 140,000 today. I will have to see the open interest tomorrow to be sure of the actual number of new contracts issued.

Looks like one heck of a bearish bet on the QQQ's to me. I'm glad you drew my attention to it tonight. I had seen this volume earlier in the day, but at that point, the $26 only had about 35,000 in volume, while the $24's were already up there.

At this link, the numbers come up a bit different from my quote provider, but the message is still the same. There was some massive volume on these May/June Puts in the QQQ.

http://www.wallstreetcity.com/optioncenter/home.asp

I have made it a regular practice to investigate volume in the QQQ options whenever the P/C gets a little out of whack. Today, earlier in the day I had a reading of about 1.40 as the markets were breaking out. Was a little perplexed until I scrolled far enough down to where the sneaky buggers were buying.

Excellent work Zeev.

GT

[Paul Shread]

As GT pointed out, there was massive volume in a couple of June QQQ put contracts; take those out and you get an equity PC of .50. Still, there are more puts than calls at 26 and below for the next two months:

http://quote.cboe.com/QuoteTable.asp?TICKER=qqq&ALL=0

The one indicator that doesn't support the bear case, IMHO.

Paul