Replies to post #170036 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

The fact that MACK now expects OS results from the NAPOLI-1 study in 2Q14 rather than 4Q13/1Q14 is neither bullish nor bearish. This timing issue has been discussed ad nauseam on this board with respect to various companies.

MACK management cautioned against a bullish interpretation; from the CC transcript:

A blinded assessment of the overall survival of events in this study indicated that the event rates or patients deaths are occurring later than our forecast. As a result, we are revising our guidance for top-line data to the second quarter of 2014. While we are encouraged by the trends towards later events I would caution that the timing of event rates can be influenced by many factors aside from the study drug.

They shouldn’t have said the reporting delay was even “encouraging,” but I suppose that’s a minor sin in the overall scheme of things.