Ek: I am not sure what you are referring to as the "secondary trend". I am talking about a retrace of the move up off the 3/12 pivot lows and from the 4/10 pivot lows. If right we could see a COMPX dip to the 50% retrace mark of 1352.78. I would keep an eye on the 50% mark of a retrace of the April 10th pivot low, 1401.72. However, first the price action has to drop back below the rising resistance line cleared today, which should now provide some support. If it proves support, that will help us glean big boy intent. Remember to “Think Like A Criminal”.
The move above that line today was either an effort to distribute followed by a pullback to reload agenda or to move the price action above the line, so it can be used as support. Moderate volume today reduced the reliability of volume analysis to help with rendering a read on which was more likely.
Disclaimer: I've not been keeping a close watch on the markets as of late. I had a little time today to tune in briefly and saw what I believe to be the makings of a retrace, not a reversal.
Regards,
LG
PS: I have been expecting the COMPX move up off its Oct 2002 low to generate a test of its March 10th 2000 Falling Resistance Line. As always, (right or wrong with my longer-term expectations) riding the medium-term trends will keep you on the right side of the longer-term trends. Riding the shorter-term trends will keep you on the right side of the medium-term trends.
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