If they are long the futures, they are short the stocks, long bonds, long gold, short the dollar or some combination of these. Such hedged positions are not indicators for the cash markets in any time frame. JMO.
I've lurked on this board for a while...figured I'd chime in. net net the commercials on the emini sp's have a short position that dwarfs the net long SP maxi. Even accounting for the factor of 5 by which maxi outsizes mini. So far this year the emini has a very strong inverse correlation to the mkt...and correlation has been improving as open interest on the mini's rises M/M. So when the short position expands climactically the market turns down and vice versa...statistically the most signficant correlation I've been able to find after working over the COT data on maxi and mini sp and ndx...we'll see if it holds up shortly or not.
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