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FinancialAdvisor

01/22/06 3:50 AM

#14359 RE: FinancialAdvisor #14358

***$GOLD/OIL, & $GOLD STOCKS (HUI)***

*Trying to see if there's any type of identifiable relationship on the weekly charts over the past 3 years?>>>

***EDIT: YES A RELATIONSHIP!>>>

*Found that when oil does in fact rise unproportionately against $GOLD that the $GOLD stocks in turn get slammed. This happens because the $GOLD companies obviously use the archaic energy of oil when mining and if the cost of oil goes up against the cost of $GOLD unproportionately than the $GOLD companies' lose their margins...

*Now what I am examining technically is the fact that I believe a potential inverted head & shoulders is building itself into the $GOLD:OIL chart, I believe that the 50 weekly average will offer support to close out January and if it holds, than rebounds to close above 9.17, in other words an ounce of $GOLD will buy 9.17 barrels of oil, than we will see a breakout in the $GOLD to OIL ratio. Historically, this ratio sits at 15:1, currently it's at a very disrespectable 8.23!

Honestly, I believe the ratio should stand at a modest 10:1, and of course that might not only be modest but quite conservative. With that said, $GOLD should theoretically be at $670(+) right now, but let's visit that historical norm of 15:1, could you imagine if that were in fact true where $GOLD would be?...

Why... $GOLD would be right smack at $1,005(+) the ounce, easily a record high!... and that's exactly what I see coming!!!

Thus, I do believe that the $GOLD to OIL ratio is in fact putting in a bottom here, and while I'm not sure if the 15:1 ratio will come back or when it will come back, I do believe that $1,000(+) $GOLD is INEVITABLE!>>>

*Furthermore, the $GOLD to OIL ratio is very important, in fact look over the 3-year chart and take note of the major swings higher and how they correlated with the HUI... the worst-case scenario was the HUI trading flat!... but in most cases, the HUI gained considerably during these "swing" periods...

***CONCLUSION/THESIS***

>>>Watch for support to reign supreme at the 50 weekly average in the week or two ahead, look for a bounce to take shape after this becomes apparent, than look for a weekly close of $9.17 or greater with a bullish weekly stick, than look for momentum to carry the $GOLD to OIL ratio, if this happens, A BOTTOM HAS BEEN PUT IN... STAY TUNED!!! THIS WOULD BE A MAJOR OCCURENCE, KNOW NOW BEFORE IT HAPPENS!!!>>>



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SPARK

01/22/06 6:54 AM

#14361 RE: FinancialAdvisor #14358

....day-dreams about the price of gold..you're in trouble, dude..lol
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mmayr

01/22/06 11:47 AM

#14362 RE: FinancialAdvisor #14358

Maybe we should ask you how you feel the situation in Iran is going to turn out. LOL

Anyway, interesting. Just don't tell too many people about those premonitions. LOL

Peace,