Replies to post #22346 on Biotech Values

[Praveen]

UnderValued Bio's...Dew/Board,

"With the huge run-up in the prices of many small biotechs during the current bull run, there are relatively few pockets of deep value remaining. Foreign companies (including Canadian) and those with offbeat business models (e.g. GTCB) are exceptions"

I think npsp is also undervalued.

Near term drivers for npsp:

1)Preos pdufa date is march 7th

2)teduglutide, proof-of-concept trial for
Crohn’s disease is Feb

Regards,
Praveen

PS: I can see 4 more owls burning midnight oil
Dew, Terry, Randy and John:-)

[terry hallinan]

DewDiligence - biotech prices,

With the huge run-up in the prices of many small biotechs during the current bull run, there are relatively few pockets of deep value remaining. Foreign companies (including Canadian) and those with offbeat business models (e.g. GTCB) are exceptions.

I have some biotechs that have run down during this huge runup. :-)

A purty pitcher for you:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ENBI&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5Ebtk,%5EGSPC,%5EDJI

You might notice the huge gap between the AMEX and OTC indexes over a rather lengthy period of time.

Sectors within categories show similar disparities and, of course, individual stocks do.

One group of biotechs that is a most notable laggard is composed of the cancer vaccine biotechs. Not terribly hard to find a reason with the numerous failures but there are vast differences between individual biotechs with varying prospects IMO.

Want to guess which of these stocks with a hated autologous vaccine I have :-):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=%5ENBI&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=DNDN%2CAGEN

AGEN's pivotal RCC trial is well over a year late with results.

I told grim longtime shareholders in New York City that is the good news.

I can't tell you how unimpressed the other kids were.

I guess those with cancer were more impressed.

Not a sure thing for sure. The departure of the CMO is disquieting to say the least. The mess that was the melanoma trial does not augur well for results. The hefty layoffs tell a worrisome story of their own.

Still and all I like very, very late results from pivotal cancer trials.

Wish DNDN luck too.

But I won't bet on their very different vaccine despite powerful evidence of efficacy that AGEN doesn't have.

Just contrary I guess.

Best, Terry