Replies to post #28218 on The Black Box

[michalel97123]

What felt unnatural to me today was the failure at any time during the day to get anything resembling a rally, even a dead cat bounce. We gotta be in for another day or two of selling as the media scares Joe sixpack over the weekend. I guess somewhere in there will be the mother of all buying ops if we buy into the bullishness of many on this thread including moi.

[michalel97123]

Is it true to say that the fed is going into its 1/31 meeting with benign inflation, an inverted spooky yield curve, clearly weaker housing, oil nearer to katrina levels, & relatively disappointing earnings as well as guidance. If so, the next big story may finally be the end of the rate cycle. Then the markets reorient its view from now to six months from now and that could be the fundamentals that drive the market to those higher levels.

[The Freep]

Diesel -- that's true to some extent (wild expiry) but usually it's not on ginormous volume. For the life of me, I cannot figger why the QQQQs traded in such extreme volume. I get stuff where there's news (C, for instance), but not the cubes. Go figger.

Could very easily be climactic volume, and we regain all breaks next week, and start the march higher, but until next week, we just don't know. Surely didn't kill the bull possibilities....

the freep

[michalel97123]

Barry Ridholtz on Kudlow talking about 10-25% correction as normal and long overdue. We havent had even a 10% one since 2002. Other talking heads disagreed. Barry also said he wouldnt be surprised if there was one more run in taking out 11k before the correction began. Reasons for corrections are that earnings are suspect because much involves oil earnings and the rest has stock buybacks as a big component. He also is betting that fed will overshoot as they always do. That 1/31 date looms.

[CaribbeanJim]

diesel - Very good point!