Replies to post #99210 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[pstuartb]

Interesting debates today on whether the chart formations auger a breakout. On a 3 year chart of the comp, it looks like we're still in the same down channel we've been in since Jan 01. We hit the top of it in Jan 02, and hit or nearly hit the bottom 4 times so far, twice in 01 and twice in 02. The Q402 rally took us only a little past midway in in the channel, and all this sideways motion over the last few months has taken us back near the top of the channel. Depending on how you draw the line, it looks like we're within 20-30 points of the top of the channel now. I drew it touching the 2002 top, and parallel to the falling support line that connects the April 01, September 01, and October 01 lows. The bottom of the channel, a few months out, looks like about 950. We have factors like relatively high valuations (GAAP S&P trailing P/E at a little over 30, versus historical average of about 15), and pressure on the dollar from the trade deficit weighing on the indexes, versus federal election year stimulus. My guess is we take another trip near the bottom of the channel in the next few months, before the market tries to price in the stimulus. I have a hard time understanding people who think we might be starting a "new bull" here. Have a good weekend, everyone.

[Babylon]

Zeev, when you wrote "From where we are, my target low is not much worse that what I had in January (I know have a target low on the Naz going back from the last revision to 1111 to 1081, essentially the original 1/25 forecast).", is it safe to say the Turnips are sticking with that number for phase-II, with phase-III to follow at least below that target somewhere, or is that the the new and final low for GN-03 you are suggesting?