For what it's worth, if we have a huge surge I would say that the odds are 50/50 that it may be far bigger than you think. The people whom I follow that are good on overall market projections, and you are one, are all on roughly the same page for the next few years. As a contrarian, I've got to believe that if it starts to move up, the gambling that is becoming more prevalent in our society may take it way up.
Certainly this is evidenced in the housing market, here in southern CA there are substantial sums being bet (and that is the correct term) that prices can only up. I believe it was in Newport Beach last year that 100% of the housing that was purchased via a mortgage was done so with an interest only loan.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
