Replies to post #2750 on Trading SPX Cycles

[northam43]

NASARAVI - When the EMA 8 gets to the UTL that is a good OB indicator so one of two things will happen, (1) the trend will continue upward but more slowly (2) a correction will eventually occur

Right now the EMA 8 is well above the 60 min UTL and above the Daily UTL, so these levels need some correction in the near future. I would imagine the 1st correction will occur at the 60 min level, which could bring the Daily EMA 8 back down to the UTL, but eventually a Daily correction will be needed. So we may be stuck at the current levels for a bit and then move up to around 1750, could go higher but I wouldn't expect much higher

The last two 60 min Phase 1's were short, so I would expect the next one to be average to extended, the last two Daily Phase 1's were extended so I would expect the next one to be short to average. Right now the 60 min & Daily prices are so high, we will either have some big down days this week or we get a gradual decline that will keep the 60 min Phase 2 extended until the Daily extends which would be Wednesday, so Thursday could be a Daily Phase 1, which a short Daily Phase 1 at this point would extend a 60 min Phase 1.

If we get a short to average Daily Phase 1, I would expect the next Daily Phase 2 to be short to average (since this and the last Daily phase 2 have both been extended), taking the SPX back to the 1750 level, and then a new Weekly Phase 1 gets under way, which is due in just over a month.

I don't track the number of corrections in a Bull/Bear market, but for a Monthly Phase 2 there is an average of 5 Weekly corrections and 25 daily corrections, currently in this Monthly Phase 2, the weekly has had 6 corrections and the Daily has had 33 corrections, so a Monthly Phase 1 is overdue. However, unless this Weekly Phase 2 is cut short, it looks like the earliest possibility for a Monthly Phase 1 is Jan 2014

Right now the next Monthly Phase 1 correction projected low is 1533.63, once the Monthly Phase 1 is confirmed we will get a better idea as to the duration.