Replies to post #167662 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

I think the PEARL-2/3/4 trials had to include ribavirin-free arms to find out if ribavirin is needed

there are ribavirin intolerant patients out there so a rib-free arm is good to have, and perhaps they were compelled to have to address this population as part of the phase 3. Those patients are fewer and far between so from a competitive and commercial standpoint if they felt they wouldn't do well i am not so sure they would run these arms

I hope you’re right, of course; if ABBV/ENTA can attain those numbers without ribavirin, ENTA investors are going to do even better than I’ve been expecting

I think alot is going to depend on whether or not GILD can get comparable success without ribavirin (and to a lesser degree with 8 weeks treatment), and/or do better in 1A pts (there isn't much room for improvement in 1Bs). GILD is also going to get all the PI failures. I see Abbvie doing much better commercially in the EU than US where there are way more genotype 1b patients and where there is more sensitivity to price. Regardless I see ENTA a great value here since Abbvie seems totally committed and there is very little chance they won't be approved