Deewar,
As to PPS - the broader market just has not seriously valued either the sales potential or the follow-on alternate indications for iPlex.
That's not too surprising - Insmed has no commercial track record. Increlex has already launched, and has a few management people that were Genentech regulars. Whereas despite the fabulous sounding promise of iPlex, Insmed has no big biotech execs, and iPlex will not launch before 2Q2006. With Wall Street, it's often like the old saw says, "believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see".
Trust & valuation from the market results from a track record. I think INSM will bounce around between $2.50 - $3.50 all the way until March or April when they launch. Even after launch INSM may only reach $3.50- $4.00. just like Lazard says. The long term value will accrue only after some commercial results.
After the 1st quarter of sales revenue & profits are reported - giving every one their first clue towards the market share shift potential of Increlex vs IPlex - then we will see the skeptical analysts start to take Insmed seriously. After that, they will start to seriously examine the alternate indications and realize that TRCA has none of those.
Announcement of a major pharma or biotech marketing partner would also help validate Insmed seriously.
Sky's the limit after 2 or 3 marketing quarters for iPlex - it will go to at least $10 or get bought out for a similar or better PPS offer by a big company. But until then, this is actually a tremendous buying opprortunity.
cheers
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