Replies to post #2382 on Captain's Quarters

[JD400]

Ingrid Becomes Second Hurricane as Storms Threaten Mexico

Hurricane Ingrid, bearing down on eastern Mexico as Tropical Storm Manuel strengthened off the country’s Pacific coast, will probably make landfall early tomorrow, with both storms expected to bring life-threatening floods.

The second hurricane of the Atlantic season is about 150 miles (241 kilometers) east of the Mexican city of Tampico and is expected to dump as much as 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain over a large part of eastern Mexico, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said in a statement.

The storm is moving northwest at 7 miles per hour and a hurricane warning is in effect for Cabo Rojo to La Pesca, according to the statement. Some strengthening is expected before Ingrid makes landfall tomorrow, the hurricane center said.

“Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Sunday,” the hurricane center said. “These rains are likely to result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.”

The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning for Ingrid’s path yesterday, and the U.S. hurricane center said a hurricane warning was in effect from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo on the Pacific coast as Manuel approaches.

Tropical Storm Manuel in the Pacific is about 75 miles west-northwest of Lazaro Cardenas, with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, and is likely also to create life-threatening flash floods with as much as 15 inches of rain over the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan, the hurricane center said in its latest advisory. Manuel is expected to move inland this afternoon.
Oil Fields

Ingrid yesterday was drifting west across the Bay of Campeche, where Petroleos Mexicanos, Mexico’s state-owned oil company known as Pemex, has its two largest oil fields. They produce about 1.25 million barrels a day.

Pemex suspended air and sea operations at its rigs in the bay, according to a company statement yesterday. The oil ports of Cayo Arcas, which processes about 68 percent of Mexico’s crude exports, and Dos Bocas were closed, the country’s Merchant Marine said yesterday in its daily weather bulletin.

The slow motion of the storm may allow it to strengthen because it is over warm water, from which tropical systems can draw power, Dan Kottlowski, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania, said yesterday.
Pacific Season

Manuel became the 13th storm of the Pacific season, which began May 15. On its current track, Ingrid won’t be a threat to U.S. production areas in the Gulf of Mexico, Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, said yesterday.

The Gulf is home to about 5.6 percent of U.S. gas output, 23 percent of crude production and more than 45 percent of petroleum refining capacity, Energy Department data show.

Rogers said clouds and rain from Ingrid may cross into Texas next week, bringing cooler temperatures that will dull electricity demand across the state.
‘Mammoth Rainfall’

The main impact of the two storms will be “mammoth rainfall amounts” across southern Mexico, said Michael Schlacter, founder of Weather 2000 Inc. in New York.

“The worst thing for heavy rain are hills, mountains and mud,” Schlacter said by telephone. “The consequences for humanitarian purposes are just that more horrific.”

Schlacter said it’s possible heavy rain will fall across southern Mexico for five days.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at [e-mail]; Edward Welsch in Calgary at [e-mail].