<The charts suggest that we're in the process of making of what I would call a "distribution top". That is, not a sharp, well-defined top like the one we made in December - but a weak, choppy, wide top. Many indicators have topped - but their tops are weaker than the tops they have made in December and January. Many other indicators are neutral. The BPIs are mostly mid-way - meaning that it is equally likely that they continue up or turn down from here. I expect choppy markets for another month or so. It is not impossible that we go marginally higher on some piece of "good news" - but it shouldn't be anything spectacular. I am very confident that the December top will not be broken on any of the indices. I am starting to get reasonably confident that the January top won't be broken, either - especially on the SPX. OTOH, I don't expect to see a strong breakdown from here, either - at least not within the next month or so. It won't happen until the summer>
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