Reuters Acampora Sees Stock Rally to Year-End Sunday April 13, 11:07 am ET By Haitham Haddadin
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks could have scraped bottom last month and are poised to rally to year-end, based on several bullish signals from across financial markets, says Prudential Securities' star analyst Ralph Acampora.
But the top technical analyst, who shot to fame in the 1990s with his famous "Dow 10,000" call, believes that stocks are still locked in a long-term bear market, or what technicians refer to as a "secular" bear market: a reverse image of the spectacular 1990s bull run.
"I think we could rally to year end, and we rise 20, 25 or 30 percent, but after that we correct," Acampora told a press briefing in lower Manhattan this week. "We really have economic problems and (corporate) earnings problems."
But he added: "Your next bull market could last a year."
Going against conventional Wall Street views, the star analyst stunned investors when in the mid-1990s he forecast the Dow Jones industrial average (CBOT:^DJI - News) was entering a huge bull market. He said the gauge would climb to 7,000 from 4,500, which it did, and after that, went on to correctly forecast the gauge would go to 10,000. But he missed big when he predicted the tech-laden Nasdaq (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) would hit 6,000 by June 2001.
BULLISH SIGNS
Acampora, one of Wall Street's best know gurus, bases his market calls on technicals such as stock prices and trade volumes, unlike "fundamental" analysts, who look at how interest rates and corporate earnings impact stock prices.
Roughly speaking for phase-II, the "magic" number has increased to just over an average 10 points down per day (up from 7.7777777 a week or two ago <gg>) to meet the mid May 1111 outline, which is also an average of .75% down per day BTW. For phase-III, the number is reduced to close to an average of 6 points, and .45% down a day respectively on average.
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