Agri: Let's not. Let's look at TEVE having a minisucle number of shares, a huge short and growing earnings which can be distributed to shareholders in the form of dividends. Go TEVE!!! Revenues/earnings/dividends!
Agribusiness, it appears your analysis is rather flawed.
The first glaring problem in the analysis you present is the assumption of a steady rate of profit over the next 4 quarters. In the case of this company, emerging into profitability tells us that this is not a steady-state quantity.
When one does a mathematical analysis of the performance of a company, it is useful to determine a quantity known as The First Derivative ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative ). Basically, this factor determines the rate of change of the rate of change of a variable. If it is positive, that means the rate of return for a company is increasing over time. If it is negative, then the rate of return is decreasing over time. If zero, then the rate of return is stagnant over time. In the case of Telvue, the performance over the previous several reporting periods indicates a positive first derivative. Hence, it is unreasonable to assume that the profitability will remain stagnant for 4 quarters. While it can either increase or decrease (as in the case of all companies) it is my personal view that with a positive first derivative that the next reporting period will yield a higher profitability than the previous one.
So, based on the first derivative test alone, your assessment of the current PE of Telvue is skewed to too high a value.
The second flaw in your presentation is the premise that the PE of a stock is overvalued if it exceeds the current market-wide average. An average, as you are no doubt aware contains constituent elements which are both greater and less than the mean value. For the PE ratio, a value less than the mean would indicate that the market view of the future PPS growth of a stock is limited. A value greater than the mean indicates a view that PPS growth is going to be increasing over time. One method of determining this growth rate is through the determination of the first derivative of earnings (please see previous paragraph).
Further, your statement of the average PE seems low, as the sources I have consulted indicate that the average is at least 150% of the number you have cited.
But, if we look at the levels that the PE can reach in the digital video distribution industry, we need look no further than the one name that comes easiest to mind, Netflix. At a PE of 364.17 based on an EPS of $0.80, one can readily see that the market is of the opinion that this industry has a good way to go up yet.
As a company which works to provide the distribution hardware and software to players and competitors to such businesses, it is, in my opinion, completely unreasonable to assess a PE going forward as low as the one you have chosen for your presentation. Especially in view of the positive first derivative of earings which I believe is in place.
This is quite a professional analysis. Almost too professional but okay. What we know is right now to procure 100 shares one has to pony up about 5k to get them at Ask. This would result in a doubling of share price in a single trading day. Not that that wouldn't be nice but it is always fun to get cheapies if they can be gotten at all. We'll be watching the FTD list to see if the market makers have been able to obtain the 900 or so shares that have traded in the past month. I don't think anyone has sold any so we'll see. If you are going to buy in, I would do so now before a big fish comes along. I wonder what would happen if someone wanted 5000 shares All or Nothing.
Market Data 
Markets 
AI
