It's just a product of changing fundamentals. As you know, the story continually changes with each passing day. I'm still not happy that the market is assigning most of VRNG's value to the GOOG dispute (I've always thought the NOK infrastructure patents were the bigger prize, at least over time), but the picture has become clearer in recent months.
The judge granted 792, we saw GOOG's weak opening appellate brief (although they have been granted leave to re-file a corrected brief), the '420 validation from the USPTO quieted the market's fear of the weak ex-parte legacy re-exam proceedings, and the court has telegraphed a 20.9% apportionment percentage most likely to be used in calculating ongoing royalties.
Based on the potential of ZTE (and other equipment maker targets), the current cash, and the jury award (+ supplemental damages and pre- & post-verdict damages), I see the downside as being much more limited. Meanwhile, the upside looks clearer, and combined I see a more attractive risk/return spec opportunity.
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