Replies to post #68799 on ajtj99's Market Pulse

[nancy2]

You mean in the past "Consecutive" years, the top was set within the first 10 trading days (that takes the plus/minus 6 days factor out the equation)?

What unique characteristics you see in this year, verus 2003 / 2004 ?

Many thanks for sharing your thought.

PS you have 91 listed twice - what is the other year than 91 ?
Was 91 the year of first Gulf War ?

[WinLoseOrDraw]

I should clarify that the NDX "on average" during those years (since 1986) tops out within 8 days plus or minus 6 days.

That's equivalent to saying the NDX "on average" has a local top at least once a month. Which, of course, is a true statement for *every* month, not just January. By that logic there is never a reason to go long.

More data...

1993: NDX higher following the 8-day Jan window
1994: ditto
1995: ditto
1996: ditto
1997: ditto
1998: ditto
1999: ditto
2000: ditto
2001: ditto
2002: Ah, here's one, actually topped in early Jan this time
2003: And a second one...
2004: A wash...
2005: Nice decline on that one

From this its clear the odds of hitting new highs late in January is highly correlated to being (or not) in a bull market.

How...surprising!

[Justa Werkenstiff]

Market: At the close last night, fwiw, (extreme) overbought sells on most every average on the daily chart for the short term. There is a chance in this environment that overbought becomes more overbought before a turn.