Replies to post #165703 on Biotech Values

[DonShimoda]

Peter, your points are well-taken. In the end, I concluded that Stanford's progress would at least validate the target. My bet is that a partnership may be possible as soon as Stanford validates CD47 in the clinic and SCTPF has IND-enabling studies in hand.

[mcbio]

SCTPF

Given the very low market cap they will basically have to either pretty much recapitalize the company or partner here.

The threat of significant dilution in the near-term is indeed a big risk one must consider here. Someone posted a report that I believe referenced the possibility of an additional $16M - $18M that may be needed to see the anti-CD47 through Phase 1 trials. If that is indeed accurate, SCTPF is going to need a lot of additional funds, unless the partnering interest is there and they are able to partner in the near-term. I would actually prefer that SCTPF incur substantial dilution myself over partnering with a bigger name for paltry royalties at this stage (i.e., single-digit). In spite of all of the risks, I, like Don, have taken a small, highly speculative, boom-or-bust position that I intend to hold for awhile. For me, it's based primarily on the valuation (~$20M fully-diluted market cap) and the hope that CD47 proves to be a legit target and SCTPF sees their drug successfully through Phase 1.