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north40000

08/23/13 11:11 AM

#9158 RE: eicoman #9157

This is what value1008 said earlier on $heff today:

>>>APRI-- "We expect peak royalties of $35M based on revenues of ~$300M along with $15M in transfer pricing [milestones]."
But the analyst has even the milestone payments too low...

Eicoman posts at IHUB APRI board on 8/16/13:
Total milestones for the EU approval —in June, mgmt said they were $600K [total].
I would think the national phase approvals [in various European nations after the EU approval] and commercial validation batches and launches would all bring more.

1- Bracco paid $1,000,000 USD as Upfront payment in order to receive rights to sell Vitaros in Italy.
2- Takeda paid $1,000,000 USD as Upfront payment in order to receive rights to sell Vitaros in the U.K..
3- Sandoz paid ~$800,000 USD as Upfront payment in order to receive rights to sell Vitaros in Germany.
4- Abbott paid $2,500,000 when commercial validation batches were produced, Oct 2012

The next partner will pay more since the drug is approved now.
Total Milestones Agreed for Vitaros so far in Dollars
December 2010 - Bracco SpA [Italy]: $7.3 M
January 2011 - Elis Pharma [Middle East]: $2.1 M
February 2011 - Neopharm Group [Israel]: $4.35 M
January 2012 - Abbott Laboratories [Canada]: $16 M
February 2012 - Sandoz - Novartis [Germany]: [up to €21] $28 M [at current Euro/USD rate]
September 2012 - Takeda Pharma [U.K.]: [up to €35] $46.6 M [at current Euro/USD rate]

Total Deals Milestones = ~ $104.35M

$5.3 M received so far - see earlier,
... so about $98.5M in milestones left to be paid.<<<
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value1008

08/23/13 11:11 AM

#9159 RE: eicoman #9157

Eicoman, i grabbed from my APRI archive of notes your post from last week about milestone payments and inserted it in a message over at Sheff's IHUB biotech board when the Cantor F. note was posted this a.m. there. Good work to put it all together.

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Dimitrios George

08/23/13 11:29 AM

#9163 RE: eicoman #9157

Unfortunately, we aren't being done any favors by institutions. As crazy as Irina's price target is, it is out there for the investment world to see and ponder. And we thought Feuerstein was bad. At least Irina is not attacking the efficacy of the drug. She is not persuaded by the size of the market and the ability of Vitaros to penetrate it.

I am with Norecoil on his observations. I think I will go see a fortune teller for investment advice.

A large or global partner for Vitaros plus a launch should help shore up the price.