Replies to post #96452 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[JLSegal]

+1 on NASD futures (actually +3 since 4:00 price of 1036) is a bit anemic after FDRY & JNPR's positive news; I thought it would have been more more market moving than that.

[Paul Shread]

Calls outnumber puts at QQQ 26 and above (but keeps flip-flopping at 26), so we're fine where we are for Max-Pain.

GE has Max-Pain under 25; think it'll hit it? -g

Paul

[mish]

Zeev you are indeed correct that Max pain is a little above here on the Naz.

QQQ is debatable but anywhere between 25 and 26 is on target.
MSFT is a solid 25 so that is a little higher.
INTC is 17.50 so that is a tad higher
CSCO is 12.50 and that is a tad lower.

All in all, stocks are slightly below or close to Pain as you suggest.
Those values are as of the last time I looked a coupe days ago. It is possible taht have changed but I doubt it.

A quick check shows max pain to be 26 but 25 is so close that a close anywhere 25-26 is a "hit" as far as I am concerned.

Oddly enough DJX and Spoos are above max pain (or at least at the top end of the range)

Note last month.
Naz was cose to max pain (but slightly below) and SPOOS/DOW was HUGELY below. This resolved into a total meltup all around.

Now we have another odd dirvegance but not as pronounced.
Naz slightly below, the others slightly above.
Perhaps that accounts for the Naz looking like it wanted to rise all day but the DOW looking very weak in comparison.

The way they are plunging the VIX VXN, this is NOT a good time to be holding front month options. But.... If we are going to gat a strong move soon, now is a decent time to be buying longer term options IMO.

INTC could have one more move to 17.5, MSFT to 25+, QQQ 26+.
Perhaps we can then begin the Nasacre which is surely been off track all year.

DOWsacre has been a better bet. Will that be more likely going forward as well?

M

[Train Guy]

Hey check this out. I know the President of a company that trades on the NYSE who will remain nameless, but if you think about it, you know who I'm talking about. Seems he was in NYC so stopped in to see the company that trades his stock. I didn't realize companies talk to their specialist. So he had breakfast in NYC and than spent the rest of the day flying back in the company jet. It ain't all that easy though. Last week, he was one of the ones that had to tell 15% of their employees, see all that finished product piling up over there. Nobody wants it right now so there is nothing for you to do. Ouch. Jan. sales were ok, Feb. a little slow, and March fell off a cliff.

And for all you PPTers, most of what you are seeing is the computers. Of course that doesn't mean that somebody who knows how it works can't game the system. And opportune shove or push to get the computers to kick in. The computers are mostly looking for arbitrage and such to skim a little off. They don't much care about the FA or TA.

---------
Just a quick note I had breakfast with one of the managing partners
of VanderMoolen, the company that trades our stock. I asked him about the
ppt and his comment was the same as yours, that in his opinion it was just
"program trading". Anyway I thought you might find that interesting.

---------
And I looked VanderMoolen up, http://www.vandermoolen.com/

Van der Moolen is an international trading firm active in equities, bonds and related instruments such as warrants, options and futures. We are active as a 'specialist' and/or proprietary trader on the important equity and options exchanges in the United States and Europe.

Van der Moolen is active in different time zones on exchange floors and electronic trading systems. In New York, we are among the top five New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) specialists, responsible for more than 15% of total common stocks traded on the exchange. As specialists and proprietary traders, we are active on the major options exchanges in the United States. In Europe, Van der Moolen has a strong presence in the Dutch, German, Swiss, UK and Scandinavian financial markets.

Van der Moolen's own shares have been listed on Euronext Amsterdam since 1986 (VDM.AS). Its American Depositary Receipts are listed on the NYSE (VDM). Van der Moolen's shares are included in the Next 150 Index of Euronext and in the AEX Index of Euronext Amsterdam. Options series exercisable into Van der Moolen shares are traded on the options exchange of Euronext Amsterdam.

You can find out more about our company in this section of our site, which includes a more extensive profile of Van der Moolen, information on our Executive and Supervisory Boards, as well as an overview of the stocks and options portfolios entrusted to Van der Moolen.
----------

And this was interesting. Especially this part - The profitability of specialist activities is a function of volumes and volatility. Market direction is of limited importance. The MM's don't care which way the markets are going. They just make sure they are on the right side of the trade.

-------
Van der Moolen is a leading specialist on the NYSE, the Chicago Board Options Exchange, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange and the American Stock Exchange (Amex).

A specialist is a market intermediary, facilitating the business of other exchange members such as investment banks and brokers. As such, the specialist provides an essential service to exchange members, making an exclusive market in the shares or option series assigned to it, and managing the central order book. The purpose of this activity is to provide a market that is as continuous as possible in time (a constant stream of trades) and price (a minimum of price gaps). Therefore, when markets are imbalanced, the specialist adds liquidity to the market by committing his own capital. For investors this means immediacy, liquidity and integrity in price formation, allowing them to transact with the confidence that their orders will be processed promptly and fairly.

At the NYSE, Van der Moolen is partnered with many of the world's greatest companies, such as Pfizer, Wyeth, Eli Lilly, Disney and Hewlett-Packard. It profits from these assignments in some cases by receiving a fee ('courtage' or 'floor commission') for handling transactions as an agent. But most of Van der Moolen's specialist revenues come from trading as a principle - that is, for its own account - in the shares assigned to it, using its own capital to intermediate between buyers and sellers.

The profitability of specialist activities is a function of volumes and volatility. Market direction is of limited importance.

Complete lists of Van der Moolen's specialist assignments, with links to the companies that issued those shares, can be found under NYSE specialist assignments, CBOE specialist assignments, PHLX specialist assignments and Amex specialist assignments.

[Babylon]

Do you have any input or updates on the target for the semi index as of yet...or are the Turnips firmly planted on the original target until they see what the next deep retrenchment looks like? TIA