Replies to post #68633 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[chipdesigner]

wbmw's predictions are strongly anticorrelated with reality. His advice in July that Intel shares would outperform AMD shares for the rest of 2005 was particularly amusing.

[wbmw]

Re: Looks like you are back to knocking Turion.

Relative to Dothan, Turion was a worthy competitor. Relative to Yonah, AMD has to fight against a process shrink as well as some major micro-architectural improvements. Moving to the X2 micro-architecture to create a dual core Turion only partially addresses this, and misses the biggest advantage of an actual process shrink. Turion at 90nm will not be able to compete with Yonah, outside of an empty promise for 64-bits.

Re: What do you mean by "still"? Do you know if I... ever believed it

You most certainly did doubt Centrino's success, along with a number of others, right up to the point where the data most decidedly contradicted you.

Re: Well, you have to start somewhere, but yeah, Celeron or slightly above Celeron. BTW, I think you are starting to see the picture.

Based on pricing, single core Turion already competes with Celeron M, so it will be interesting what happens to AMD's ASPs as Yonah ramps. Personally, I'm expecting a Turion dual core paper launch later this quarter with availability mid-year, enough to make the first Turion launch seem on time.