TAIPEI, Taiwan ¡V Jan. 3, 2006 ¡VDRAM transactions turned slow during Christmas and New Year holidays. Most vendors and buyers who were uncertain of the future price trend have retreated to the sidelines for clear price indication for the upcoming Chinese New Year. NAND Flash, at the meantime, should suffer from price down pressure for the high-density segments.
DDR 256Mb 400MHz remained flat at US$2.11 and DDR 512Mb 64Mbx8 400MHz was up slightly from US$4.13 to US$4.14. DDR 256Mb eTT (UTT) chips were also slightly up from US$2.01 to US$2.03. DDR2 enjoyed price up with the major brand of 512Mb went up from US$3.73 to US$3.77 and DDR2 512Mb NMB ( non-major-brand ) also went up from US$3.04 to US$3.11.
Spot prices for 1Gb, 2Gb and 16Gb NAND Flash, up 1%, 2% and 1% respectively and closed at US$7.54, US$15.13 and US$71.2 on January 2, 2006. Prices of 4Gb and 16Gb, however, suffered 4% and 3% drop and closed at US$25.06 and US$42.72.
DRAM makers attempt to raise 1HJan contract prices by 3%-5%
Encouraged by the stronger-than-expected demand in Dec05 and Jan06, most DRAM makers have announced the attempt of raising 1HJan contract prices by 3%-5% for both DDR and DDR2 chips.
DRAM procurement amount remains strong along with the ease of Intel chipset shortage since 2HDec, according to DRAM makers. Since DRAM makers have reduced their DDR2 production output since Nov05, a shortage of DDR2, as well as tight supply of DDR are reported.
Despite transaction remained low in spot market last week, DRAMeXchange observes that in contract market, the Christmas demand has been prolonged with demand picking up at Asian markets due to the upcoming Chinese New Year.
PC OEMs, at the meantime, whom do not accumulate much inventory through September to November due to the shrinking memory prices (from September 2005), do not trim down their procurement amount for the need to adjust down inventory in December as before.
We believe the positive momentum for both DRAM spot and contract prices should maintain before Chinese New Year. The flow of demand should serve as a key indication for DRAM pricing after February.
Growing 4G/8G NAND Flash supply drag prices down 3- 4%
Year-end pressure among NAND Flash makers and their customers have prompted them to off-load products, the increased the chip flow dragged high-density NAND Flash spot price down further.
Marketers from China who searched for cheap 1Gb and 2 Gb NAND flash chips for Chinese New Year drove most demand. However, supply of the TSOP-packed 1Gb and 2Gb chips at the spot market is scarce with NAND Flash makers mainly focusing on fulfilling leading OEM¡¦s high-density demand.
Retail price for 128MB and 256MB NAND flash chips are currently stay at around US$10-11 and US$15-16 respectively, leaving buyers at the spot market having no choice but to search for cheap parts. To supply lower price parts, DRAMeXchange foresees white-brand 2Gb chips to emerge in order to fulfill buyers¡¦ sourcing strategies.
As most industry players are still on holiday and the spot market transaction should remain quiet this week. However, demand should be picked up once buyers come back from vacation. Tracking the holiday memory consumption records, we expect prices of high-density chips should continue heading south as supply should remain sufficient. Low-density chips, on the contrary, should enjoy a better outlook, thanks to the limited supply.
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