Replies to post #165251 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

In biotech investing, it’s generally better to own a great business with a so-so drug than a so-so business with a great drug.

[DewDiligence]

The first potential approval for simeprevir, and the one we have the most data on, is basically a better interferon-based regimen. I'm not so sure what's so "breakthrough" about that.

The FDA agrees with you—they said no :- )

[dewophile]

I'm long Medivir because I think simeprevir is a potential best-in-class PI

i've been following the HCV space at arms length these days and may not be up on the lates, but what exactly do you base this on? I agree QD dosing, no need for boosting, and potency is nice. but i do think in the DAA era what is more important is resistance (e.g. sofosbuvir which can achieve cures with jsut one or 2 other drugs) and combinability (i.e SE profile and if it plays well with others). i dont know how medivir's Pi stacks up in this regard

unless regimens start dropping ribavirin (which is a possibility and we'll know soon enough with non-rib DAA trials reading out soon) QD vs BID is almost meaningless. in fact i would rate the atributes most important in the following order:

1. resistance (merck has a high resistnace barrier PI but i think it may have some tox issues)
2. SE profile and ability to be combined w other classes
(you can reverse #1 and 2 ad i woudn't argue, but i would point out that a high resitance drug is in some sense like giving 2 or more agents since you need multiple mutations often to create resistant strains which is similar to what you need to develop resistance to multiple classes of drug)
3. what genotypes it hits (pan-genotypic PIs are possible idenix had one)
4 and last is dosing frequency, particularly if ribavirin at BID is still in the mix

JMO