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chainik

01/03/06 11:51 AM

#68365 RE: Justa Werkenstiff #68327

A combination of gap, crap, and strong SOX is usually good for the market (and, in particular, for SOX).

A lot of confident bears on the boards predicting collapse into the fall. Not saying that this is not going to happen (I am bearish), but IMO chances of a big decline now are not very high.

IMO big guys are not positioned by the dump, and we haven't seen yet euphoria like a year ago.
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Justa Werkenstiff

01/03/06 12:52 PM

#68371 RE: Justa Werkenstiff #68327

Marekt: I said this morning: "MSFT has an analyst's day meeting on January 5th. Given the dismal recent performance and oversold nature of this issue, it could bounce in reaction or in anticipation to this meeting giving the NDX some lift."

MSFT did not make a lower low with the NDX this morning and seems to be breaking up from a four day downtrend line here. Still ugly but showing signs of life. Worth watching.



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Justa Werkenstiff

01/04/06 5:58 AM

#68463 RE: Justa Werkenstiff #68327

Market: For yesterday, I reiterated my bullish stance short term and pointed out that MSFT should be watched as it was approaching a pump opportunity.

I remain bullish though it may be time for some consolidation at least for part of today per the 30 minute chart. Yet, though it seems unusual to me to see the NYA make a new high for the move without the SPX, I suspect that will correct itself. Note also that the NYA has busted up through the upper daily bb. Looking at some things in addition to that and I can short term target SPY 127.58 or 1277.67 SPX which would be new highs for the move and be a slight pierce of the upper bb on the SPX. Could it be greater? Maybe... but that is my reasonable target for now.

My somewhat bearish position on the NDX for the past month has proved accurate as one can see on the decline and this rally so far. The SPX, for example, is testing old highs and the NDX is currently 37 points off its highs. On December 22nd I said: " Guideline: If one is bearish, short the NDX; if one is bullish, buy the broader market like the SPX." Though oxymoronic as it may have seemed, it was good advice as the NDX tanked and the SPX held up very well on this last decline. With the MSFT reversal yesterday for their pump session, that may have changed short term. Will the NDX make a new high? I don't know. I have posted that the NDX has a history of making a high in the first part of January and then to correct at least 5% or an average of 9% from the highs. One has to have that fact in the back of their minds in here.