Augie: I don't have a vix target other than 26 ish (last area of past two lows) but what does it matter anyway. Let's see...today the vix fell 6.74% but the SPX was flat with no opex crap messing stuff up. This is quite unbullish. We are topping here imo and it might take some time but in terms of price we are pretty close as suggested by this action. Last March, the Vix dropped 12% but the SPX trended down anyway. A falling Vix with no bump in prices is bearish. A bump might yet come this week but I think I know how the story ends.
The VXN shows a toasted Nasdaq lurking around like Saddam for a safe bunker trying to avoid the inevitable. Maybe they take it under 40 but so what as it has the same trend here in that a lower vxn can't generate higher prices that stick. Look at those black gap and crap days. Don't understand while so many are so bullish with those looking at them in the face. Last March from the peak in Nasdaq price on March 12th, the VXN declined from 44.48 to 36.21 (18.6%) to March 28th while the Nasdaq went down 80 points.
The key to the vxn/vix puzzle may be what I suggested today -- namley, the Nasdaq and NDX and Sox have topped out while the SPX and DJIA have not. Look back at last March and you will see that while the Nasdaq topped on March 12th, the SPX did not do so until March 19th.
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