Replies to post #6308 on MDA - Market Direction Analysis (MDA)

[hk2]

I habitually bust my chops trying to short large gaps up & have lost serious money over the years doing it. Today I decided to break the habit. Go figure. Had my head handed to me again. my only saving grace was I had to leave early today & bailed just as we broke down at 2:30. I just now got a look at how the market closed.

Good golly, Miss Molly! Someone beat the chart with an ugly stick!

I haven't had the time to study the market much lately, but a quick review doesn't show me how I could have detected that this was going to happen. Then again, maybe there was no way & they were good trades by virtue of my sticking to my stops.

[hk2]

Bonds keep making LOD

[augieboo]

augietrade -- flat as of the close today.

Well, that plan didn't pan out awfully well.

Wound up selling the SMH yesterday @ 24.01

Sold RYVNX at the close today for a nice profit,
but I'm not sure at this point if it will cover
the loss on SMH. At best I'd say a wash overall.

Augienalysis:

[1] SMH dropped a lot but the market only dropped a little
on Tuesday. Why? Because the BIOs did well by comparison.

[2] Good basic plan, but bad details. In the future, if I
think a hedge is needed, I'll use only QQQ to hedge the
negative NDX funds.



---------------------------------------------------

The Trade:
1/3 RYVNX (-2x NDX)
1/3 SMH @ 24.79 (FILLED)
1/6 SMH @ 24.51 (AH order FILLED)
1/6 SMH @ 24.21 (AH order CANCELLED)

Note: The extra SMH orders are lowballs in case SMH drops in AH today.

The Plan:

1. Sell SMH tomorrow (looking for early bounce from closing at or near today's lows, 15 & 30 min charts looking up, etc).

2. Assuming the orders for additional SMH do not go through this afternoon I will add additional 1/3 to RYVNX position tomorrow if day looks green near EOD.

3. Cross fingers

4. Pray