Replies to post #164016 on Biotech Values

[hirogen]

XOMA-

Not sure I understand your logic? (not being flip). If it is that there is a lot of uncertainty because the Behcets trials were so small, I agree. But would suggest that the median is very high compared to historicals so even with a mark down for uncertainty.... Or is your argument that if IL-1s are the same as TNFs then they shouldn't assume 40%.?

I'll try to explain better. With IL-1 being a sister cytokine to TNF-a then inhibition of it should show comparable results. If we look at the TNF-a data, let's say the response rate on a composite endpoint is 50%. But not all responders are going to see an improvement in VH grade. For sake of discussion I'll just estimate the VH specific response is half of the composite for an overall of 25%, which is much lower than that used in the Eyeguard-A trial design. However the Behcets ph I data appears to show that Gev is more effective the more severe the disease, so I'm expecting a higher overall (composite) response rate than 50%. What I'm not sure of is what fraction of those responding to Gev will translate to a 2 point VH grade improvement.