Replies to post #163658 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Medivir/ENTA

ABT-450 has six all-oral trials in phase-3, while Simeprevir has zero all-oral trials in phase-3; that’s a pretty big distinction.

All in due time Dew. ; ) I'm happy to let ABT-450 have a head start as I'm more interested in the outcome at the finish line. The fact remains that ABT-450 is going to be part of 4 or even 5-drug combos whereas simeprevir has a chance to be part of just 2 or 3-drug combos. I think that will prove a pretty big distinction ultimately.

All things being equal (and they are to some degree here given similar valuations), I prefer to back the better drug and I believe that's simeprevir in this case.

Moreover, as noted in #msg-89505745, ABT-450 uses ritonavir at only half the normal PK-boosting dose.

Still, I imagine not having to use ritonavir at all will prove to be an advantage for simeprevir.

I should add that I'm not trying to say I don't think ENTA will prove to be a successful investment at this valuation going forward as it does look cheap. I just prefer the risk-reward of Medivir here ultimately.

[oc631]

ABT-450 has six all-oral trials in phase-3, while Simeprevir has zero all-oral trials in phase-3; that’s a pretty big distinction.

I see more potential in simeprevir. The drug should have a 2-year approval lead (over GILD and ABBV) in GT1 primary markets and can establish itself as a best choice regime in secondary markets through pricing. JNJ/Medivir is also seeking GT4 labeling for simeprevir in Europe. JNJ/Medivir could license IDX-719 for oral use so there are potential binary events here that could impact the price of Medivir stock. A P.I./NS5A oral combo, if viable, would be a differentiated offering. Right now simeprevir is a stand alone, interferon-based option whereas ABT-450 is just an important ingredient within a multi-drug oral combo.

[DewDiligence]

ENTA—All six phase-3 trials of ABT-450 + ABT-267 + ABT-333 are fully enrolled, according to ABBV’s 2Q13 CC on now.