Replies to post #275515 on ERHC Energy Inc (ERHE)

[tryoty]

Let's look at this a little more closely...

"You are absolutely right in concluding that ERHC is unlikely to get very much for their blank canvas in Kenya. Why carry ERHC when other blocks are becoming available? (you obviously don't like the Kenyan property, we get it) And if ERHC does get a lot it will likely be from a partner who is technically deficient and probably won't actually find oil, but does have a lot of cash. (so you are set up to continue trashing this stock either way, if they sign the Chinese and get a lot of cash, you will continue with the incompetence mantra. If they sign ExxonMobile and get very little you will trash them for giving up too much for too little) SNP and CNOOC come to mind. We always knew massive dilution was coming. (The "massiveness" can be mitigated by a strong deal in Kenya, but you don't like that "blank canvas"... yet cling to your shares) Next we will find out how bad it will be. Personally I would prefer the dilution to another inferior JV partner. (of course you would, you have always supported scenarios that would produce the most negative outcome for shareholders, it's what you do) If ERHC didn't learn that lesson in the JDZ, then they never will." (you didn't learn your lesson, you're still here)

ERHC will do what ERHC will do no matter how much attention you try to get on the internet. That's the reality of the situation.

[Krombacher]

Actually, all of those are opinions...and opinions are neither right or wrong unless substantiated.

To the contrary, my opinion is that Kenyan blocks are no longer available and if new ones do become available they will be on substantially worse terms given that Kenya has decided to increases taxes, fees, and other regulatory burdens on a go forward basis for any new blocks. Any operator will salivate at the prospect of snapping up the last and least burdensome block from a Kenyan tax perspective...and that would be ERHE's.

Africa Oil had no problem selling its "blank canvas" and in fact they gave up quite a bit of percentages because of it (they indicated they would not do any pre-testing)...and yet their deal was phenomenal.

ERHE's oil block could have some testing done by ERHE at ERHE's desire...but we know that from the stock offering, Offor felt that would not be necessary...since ERHE a day or two later after the stock offering information had already announced an LOI. But then that is my opinion.

You yourself pointed out that CNOOC left Kenya and is now in Uganda. So I have no idea how you have come to the conclusion that ERHE would partner with CNOOC. CNOOC is not there, according to links you provided.

However, interestingly it was thanks to the CNOOC that Africa Oil got great deals elsewhere in Kenya. Perhaps such good fortune will smile on ERHE as well.

I highly doubt there would be any massive dilution coming if ERHE gets a deal like Africa Oil got...it would then have all the funding it needs for Chad or the EEZ. In fact, ERHE only needs about HALF of what Africa Oil got.

Who said SNP was an inferior partner in the JDZ??? Most know that the hang up in the JDZ is the JDA and not Sinopec.

Krombacher

[Krombacher]

Compared to the last set of blocks licensed to companies, of which ERHE owns the last one...

...new blocks in Kenya present a horrendous set of challenges, which would cause any company to salivate over ERHE's last block.

For example:

Previously Kenya operated more on a first-come, first-serve basis, but since it has become established as a known area for hydrocarbon deposits, it wants to demand more from companies that seek to drill in the country, energy ministry officials said.

Nyoike said Kenya would demand higher licensing fees and impose heavier work programme requirements, which means companies would be required to spend more money in the country.

"Things were different a year ago than now ... Kenya can demand more," Nyoike said.

Kenya has become a magnet for exploration activity since announcing in March last year its first oil discovery by British explorer Tullow Oil to the north, followed shortly by a second find in the same region.

In the wake of those finds, international oil and gas companies snapped up what remained of Kenya's 46 exploration licenses.

WOW, good thing that ERHE SNAPPED UP THE LAST ONE BEFORE ALL THE NEW CHANGES IN REGULATIONS AND FEES!!!!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/12/kenya-oil-idUSL5N0BCHWE20130212?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43

Krombacher

[Krombacher]

Of course, if there is massive dilution...it may very well be so that a partner would own a portion of ERHE...as ha already been indicated by the company in its FAQs.

...if a major oil company whether it is SNP or Marathon or Exxon or Tullow...were to say that they want to own ERHE in exchange for tens of millions of dollars...

...well that certainly is a vote of confidence by these companies isn't it?

AND, since these companies have an interest in these assets as operators, it is unlikely they would divest of ERHE any time soon...so that dilution would not even really add to the float of trading shares.

What a win that would be!

And all we have to do is wait and see what came of that LOI...

...tick tock, tick tock, tick tock.

Krombacher