If one were in toofuzzy's situation, having to fork over a lot of money just to get the power lines run a long distance, the payback would come pretty quickly.
For the rest of us who are already on the grid, I'd think that the payback would be > 15 years, especially with the panels more expensive now than when that 15-year figure was the rule of thumb.
And I've never been sure about the 15-year figure. That's about when you're probably going to have to replace your batteries.