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techanalyst1

04/03/03 11:03 PM

#93948 RE: Zeev Hed #93916

FYI.......... Merq sells off every April before earnings.

But you are correct their biz is much different than Psft:

Smaller deal size.
Repeat Rev. model.
Easier and faster install.
Quick ROI.
Saves on Hardware by making it more efficient.
Fewer competitors.

They have never lowered guidance except after 9/11 and only then because they had to cancel their world wide user conference in Orlando which was due in October and took a charge for that..... and it was a very tiny "miss".

They have a habit of blowing away earnings.

It's a short killer.

But if it breaks the 28 area, I anticipate that it probably goes to the low 20 area. It isn't usually this weak this far in front of earnings.

TA