Replies to post #161844 on Biotech Values

[oc631]

Judging by my Twitter stream, people apparently think the upcoming PI+NS5A combo data will be good and either enough to move the dial then or enough to move the dial when/if that combo gets to market.

These investors are assuming ACHN will be able to do something MRK, BMY, and ABBV failed to do. Achieve approval with a PI/NS5A combo in GT1. The truth of the matter is there's no place for this combo. It's late and brings nothing to the table. The GILD combo will prove more tolerable, achieve higher SVR rates, provide a stronger resistance profile, etc. I invite anyone on twitter to point out the value driver here.

There are rumors that future HepC studies will be non-inferiority studies using sofosbuvir in the control arm. As if the sovaprevir/3102 story didn't have enough holes in it. If this combo ever made it to market (which I don't think will happen) it won't sell. ACHN will never recover their investment in a best case scenario unless they change course.

If this in-house combo were to fail safety this company would be trading just north of cash. Anyone exposing themselves to this kind of investment risk, banking on approval of a mediocre combo, needs to find another hobby.


IDIX and Medivir are much better investments. The reason ACHN trades at a higher MC could be the simplistic modeling used on Wall St. Our model indicates that a HCV company with (2) phase two compounds, and (2) phase one compounds, deserves this valuation.

I don't know how else to explain it.