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jbog

05/28/13 9:38 PM

#161717 RE: DewDiligence #161716

It's obvious they were wrong then if rates dropped >60% from that time period. That's not to say they aren't too low today and will need to be adjusted. I can't see how they are in a Bubble in the normal sense of the word. Bubbles are created by speculation, borrowing and enthusiasm, and I certainly don't know of anyone who's one bit excited to invest in bonds today.

In Pfizer's note, they said they will use the proceeds to eventually pay off other debt (re-fi) so what do you think they'll do with the money in the meantime? Probably lend it to the Government for a lower rate and lose money in the meantime.

When the floodgates open there won't be anyplace to hide. Equities could actually see a more damaging situation.

Time will tell.
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BTH

05/28/13 10:18 PM

#161725 RE: DewDiligence #161716

What do you make of the premise that some macro-bears are making in that when a bond bubble breaks, that money doesn't rotate into different assets classes, instead, it just goes "poof!"

For instance, if you follow @HFTelemetry that is what he preaches daily,
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bladerunner1717

05/28/13 11:42 PM

#161729 RE: DewDiligence #161716

Dew,

A "bubble," by definition, carries with it the notion of "irrationality." With most of Europe and England in recession, with Spanish unemployment and other peripheral nations at Depression-like levels, with Japan struggling with two decades of deflation, with U.S. manufacturing in the toilet and unemployment stubbornly high, with the Chinese economy slowing and disinflation, if not outright deflation, in the air everywhere, interest rates are probably right where they should be, central banks' action--or inaction, depending upon your political/economic perspective--notwithstanding.

Sure, rates will go up at some point, but that doesn't prove we're in a bubble. I don't know why you try to keep propagating this myth of a "bond bubble." It seems like the flip side of the coin of jbog's "Zimbabwe-like inflation" prediction in 2009.

Even Bill Gross is not exactly optimistic about bonds, although he argues that his bond funds will outperform equities when the various central banks take away the punch bowl. (Hmmm, what a surprise.)

Bond yields are historically low, but not irrationally low, by most people's understanding of rationality.

Furthermore, premature unwinding of the Fed's asset buying programs could have the undesired effect of undermining the Market and the nascent recovery, plunging the U.S. and the global economy into a worse recession and, thus, lowering bond rates even further.


Bladerunner