I thought the original discussion started off with a comment by another poster that the stock market probably wouldnt take a big plunge because commercials were net long SP500 contracts.
I dont think that is a good assumption for the reasons I stated. However if you are trading the SP500 futures only then you are probably right to follow the commercial position in that contract. Hell its working for you I wouldnt change anything.
I doubt the big players do much of anything without hedging a great deal at the present time, so its probably hard to infer much imo.
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