Replies to post #92106 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[wahz]

http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm

[mish]

DoesntAddUp is correct.
You have to add the big and mini contract together to get the correct picture.

Why would they switch to the mini?
Why not.
It is more liquid and easier to get ina and out of than the big contract.
We are also seeing more intraday volatility back and forth and the minis can be fed in and out tradewise easier IMO.

Here are the numbers - scroll down
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

The commercials are over 200,000 eminis short.
You can not overlook this and say the commercials are long.
They are not long. They are short.

They are long the big contract by 9523.
9523 * 5 = 47,615

They are short the mini by 236,054 contracts
236054-47615 = 188,439
The cots are short the spoos by 188,439 minis
188439/5 = 37,688
Thus the net affect is the COTS are short the spoos by 37,688 large contract equivalents

To say the cots are long the spoos is seriously wrong.
Someone can double check my math but there is no way in Hell the COTs can be said to be "long" the spoos.

M