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Replies to #198 on TRADINGWITHVIX
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POG

05/15/13 12:30 PM

#199 RE: Nirvana #198

That means per my vix models, spy at 157.50 was 2-sigma deviation from mean on upside. My vix based system went long vix when spy was 157.50.

If you see vix has not gone anywhere since then, and is bearish on market on the other hand spy has gone up from 157.50 to 166, way too off from std deviation. This cannot sustain. Normal human behavior 80 percent of time fall inbetween 2signa deviation. When something that goes that far, people who are buying this market clearly indicate not normal buying and is a bubble which must deviate to mean.

How can this resolve.
1. sharp selloff with vix moving to other extreme.
2. Vix keeps rising and if market keeps rising, crash is imminent.

I am long vix calls and short spy.